India’s refiners boost Russian oil imports to record levels as geopolitical pressures reshape energy flows

India just quietly became Russia’s biggest crude oil lifeline outside of China. Refiners across the country pushed Russian crude imports to an all-time high in June, with ship-tracking data showing deliveries of approximately 2.7 million barrels per day. That’s not a marginal increase. It’s a roughly 30% jump from May’s figures of 1.95 to 2.13 million bpd.

For context, Russian oil now makes up more than half of everything India imports on the crude front. In May, that share sat at 36.5%. In the span of a single month, India’s dependence on Russian barrels went from significant to dominant.

What’s driving the surge

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by escalating conflicts in the Middle East, has effectively choked off one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. With that option constrained, Indian refiners have been scrambling for alternatives, and Russian crude, already flowing at discounted prices since Western sanctions hit in 2022, became the obvious play.

India’s total crude imports remained remarkably steady at around 4.9 million bpd in June. The composition of those imports, though, shifted dramatically. Russian barrels simply displaced volumes that would have otherwise come from Middle Eastern producers.

Indian refiners have been steadily increasing their appetite for Russian crude ever since the invasion of Ukraine prompted the West to sanction Moscow’s energy sector. The steep discounts on Russian oil, sometimes as much as $10 to $20 per barrel below international benchmarks in earlier periods, gave Indian buyers an economic incentive that was hard to ignore.

In June alone, India spent approximately EUR 4.5 billion on Russian crude. That single line item accounted for 83% of India’s total fossil fuel imports from Russia, cementing the country’s position as the second-largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons globally, trailing only China.

The sanctions paradox

There’s an interesting tension baked into these numbers. Western nations designed sanctions to starve Russia of energy revenues, and by some measures, the strategy has worked. Russia’s overall oil export revenues have reportedly declined despite the surge in Indian buying. Price caps, insurance restrictions, and shipping complications have eaten into Moscow’s margins even as volume flows remain robust.

But India’s record purchases illustrate a fundamental limitation of the sanctions regime. You can discourage Western buyers and intermediaries, but you can’t easily prevent the world’s third-largest oil importer from seeking the cheapest barrels available. India has consistently maintained that its energy policy is driven by national interest, not geopolitical allegiance, and these numbers back that up with considerable force.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.