Iran Air to resume domestic flights after 50-day suspension amid conflict

Iran Air will restart domestic flights on Wednesday after a 50-day suspension caused by the ongoing conflict, a move that suggests some degree of de-escalation. The odds of Iran striking Israel by April 30 remain locked at 100% YES.

Market reaction

The Iran striking Israel by April 30 market sits at 100% YES despite the flight resumption. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market is at 1% YES, while the June 30 regime fall market trades at 8% YES.

Why it matters

The regime fall markets see $28,201 in daily USDC volume, with real money behind these positions. It takes only $6,561 to move the odds by 5 points, which makes these markets vulnerable to large swings. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop, consistent with the market’s deep skepticism about an imminent collapse.

What to watch

Reopening domestic airspace after 50 days of suspension points to reduced internal threat perception. Buying YES at 1¢ pays $1 if the Iranian regime falls by April 30, a 100x return. That bet requires believing in a rapid collapse within the next 10 days. Watch Iranian state media for announcements of military activity or ceasefire extensions, which could move odds in both the military action and regime fall markets.

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