Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, complicating US blockade resolution

Iran’s First Vice President declared Iran will maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing down the odds for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 to 72.5% YES, from 90% yesterday.

The April 19 blockade-lift market collapsed to 8% YES as traders priced in near-zero chance of a quick resolution. The May 31 market dropped 5 points, a clear recalibration given Iran’s position. Explore the May 31 market.

The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for sanctions relief in April remains inactive, with no buyers willing to bet on concessions. Odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 have fallen to 37.7% YES. Iran’s repeated insistence on maintaining its nuclear achievements leaves little room for an enrichment deal on that timeline. View the uranium enrichment market.

Total USDC traded in the Hormuz blockade markets is $29,602, with the April 19 sub-market seeing the most action. A 6-point drop hit at 6:05 PM on increased selling pressure. Only $1,419 was needed to move the May 31 market 5 points, which means large orders can still swing prices despite decent liquidity.

Iran’s assertion of control over the Strait makes a quick resolution to either the sanctions or enrichment disputes less likely. At 37.7¢, a YES share on Iran ending enrichment pays 3.57x, but that return depends on a negotiating breakthrough that current signals don’t support.

Watch for US Navy movements or direct White House statements on strategy changes. Those would be the clearest catalysts for market moves.

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