Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise

U.S. gas prices have climbed to $4.11 per gallon, marking the fifth consecutive day of increases, while the Polymarket contract for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES.

Market reaction

Iran’s recent statement about maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz has kept global oil futures rising. The 1.1% YES odds for crude oil reaching a new peak by April 30 reflect heavy skepticism about a dramatic price surge, even with tightening supply constraints. This market has seen limited trading activity: just $2,513 in actual USDC volume in the last 24 hours against a face value of $100,828. A recent spike from 3% to 4% suggests some speculative interest, but overall movement remains muted.

In the WTI Crude Oil market, odds for hitting $160 in April are at 0.2% YES. Actual USDC traded there is just $506 against a face value of $54,256. Price movement is sluggish, with $1,632 needed to shift the odds by five percentage points, a sign of a thinly traded market.

Why it matters

Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is a real factor in rising oil prices, but the market response so far shows traders are not convinced of an imminent spike to historic levels. Both contracts remain thinly traded, meaning large individual orders can swing odds significantly due to low liquidity.

What to watch

Statements from OPEC+ or the U.S. administration could provide clearer direction. A decision to release strategic petroleum reserves or OPEC+ production adjustments would directly affect these contracts.

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