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A senior Iranian cleric called for an apology from US President Donald Trump for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The US-Iran peace deal market for April 30 has dropped to 6% YES, down from 20% a day ago.
The cleric’s statement hasn’t moved odds on Iranian regime collapse by May 31, which hold at 4.1% YES. Traders are treating this as rhetoric rather than actionable change. The peace deal market is reacting more sharply: the April 30 sub-market dropped 14 points, likely because the cleric’s demands signal increased tensions.
Peace deal odds for May 31 sit at 28.5% YES, down from 44% yesterday. The term structure shows a 22-point jump from April 30 to May 31, which means traders expect a potential catalyst in that window. June 30 odds are at 45% YES, showing more confidence further out.
Trading volume across the peace deal markets is $852,860 in USDC. It takes $30,914 to move the April 30 market by 5 points, a relatively thick order book.
The cleric’s rhetoric continues Iran’s long-standing hostility toward Israel, but this isn’t new information. That’s why regime fall odds haven’t moved. The peace deal market is more sensitive, especially with ceasefire negotiations ongoing. At current levels, buying YES at 6¢ offers a 16.67x return, but that requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent.
Watch for statements from Pakistan’s mediation efforts or any indication from the US or Iran about extending or concluding ceasefire talks. These could move peace deal odds sharply.
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