Iran directs pro-government rallies to continue amid US, Israel tensions

Iranian authorities have directed pro-government street gatherings to persist until Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei orders them to cease, highlighting the regime’s strategy to maintain public unity amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. This directive comes as part of Iran’s efforts to project strength following renewed hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is actively involved in orchestrating these demonstrations to reinforce regime stability while Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly for nearly six weeks, reportedly recovers from injuries sustained in a February attack.

Markets appear to have interpreted this development as indicative of continued leadership by Mojtaba Khamenei, despite his absence from public view. This interpretation is reflected in the pricing of prediction markets concerning Iran’s leadership status by the end of 2026. The market for whether there will be no head of state at the year’s end shows a 78.6% probability of a YES resolution, slightly down from 83% earlier. This suggests that while Khamenei’s prolonged absence raises questions, the regime’s actions are consistent with a maintained leadership structure.

The pricing dynamics in prediction markets related to potential leadership changes in Iran by the end of 2026 have shown some movement. The odds of a leadership change by December 31, 2026, have increased to 21.5% from 16% over the past 24 hours, suggesting that some market participants are considering the possibility of a shift in leadership amid the current geopolitical tensions.

Key Takeaways

• The directive for ongoing pro-government gatherings appears to support the perception of stability in Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership despite his absence.
• Market pricing suggests a moderate decrease in the probability of a leadership vacuum in Iran by the end of 2026, reflecting continued regime control.
• The likelihood of a leadership change by December 31, 2026, has increased to 21.5%, suggesting rising anticipation of potential shifts in Iran’s political landscape.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor for any significant public appearances or announcements from Mojtaba Khamenei, which could influence market perceptions of leadership stability. Additionally, any reports of internal power struggles within Iran’s leadership or the IRGC could impact market expectations. Developments in the ongoing conflict and Iran’s international relations may also play a critical role in shaping the outlook for Iran’s political future and leadership continuity.

Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.