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Iranian air defenses engaged hostile targets over Tehran amid ongoing conflict. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
The market for Iranian regime fall by June 30 ticked up 0.5 points from the previous day, suggesting traders read the air defense engagement as a signal of persistent instability, though the move is small. The odds for Iran military action against Israel by April 30 hold at 100% YES, with traders pricing in continued military activity within the next week as a certainty.
Trading volume in the regime fall market is low, with actual USDC traded at $30,969, meaning significant price moves would require substantial capital. Order book depth is $26,254 to move 5 points, consistent with traders waiting for more definitive developments before placing larger bets.
Air defense activation over Tehran reflects ongoing tensions but hasn’t meaningfully shaken trader confidence in the regime’s short-term stability. At 9¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 11.1x return. For that bet to make sense, a trader would need to expect significant escalation or internal fractures within 68 days.
Watch for IRGC command changes or reports of internal dissent. Credible signs of regime instability could move the market quickly. The next meaningful signal may come from Tehran’s response to continued air defense engagements or shifts in international diplomacy.
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