3 hours ago
9
Iran exported 9 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf of Oman despite the ongoing US blockade. The probability of WTI Crude hitting $160 in April sits at ? YES.
Market reaction
Iran shipping oil through the blockade points to temporary relief in supply constraints, which could ease upward pressure on oil prices. The market for WTI Crude hitting $160 in April remains active, with traders weighing geopolitical tensions against supply realities. The April 30 sub-market is where the focus lies, with 14 days left until resolution.
Why it matters
The crude shipments from Iran could push WTI Crude pricing in a bearish direction. Successful exports reduce the probability of a price spike, especially with the US sanctions waiver still in effect until April 19. That timeline matters: if the waiver expires and Iranian exports get choked off again, the supply picture changes fast. The gap between the April 19 waiver expiry and the April 30 market resolution creates a narrow window where policy shifts could move odds sharply.
What to watch
Monitor statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, and US President Donald Trump. Any change in rhetoric or policy on the blockade or oil production could move market odds significantly. The April 19 sanctions waiver expiry is the key date. If the waiver is extended, bullish bets on $160 WTI become harder to justify. If it lapses, supply tightening could reprice the market quickly.
API CTA
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) ·