Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar

Iran’s Air Force launched sorties against US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. The market for Iranian regime fall by May 31 is at 4% YES, up from 3% yesterday.

Market reaction

The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market remains flat at 0% YES with just two days left. The May 31 market moved to 4% YES from 3% yesterday. The term structure shows only a 3-point increase over 31 days, meaning traders aren’t pricing in quick regime change.

Why it matters

Combined daily volume across the regime fall markets is $145,850 in USDC, with most activity in the May 31 contract. Order book depth shows it takes $260,467 to move the May 31 market by 5 points, a relatively thick book where large players have more influence. The largest move was a 47-point drop on April 28, driven by significant trades.

Iran’s sorties signal sustained commitment to the conflict, which works against the probability of imminent regime collapse. At 4%, the May 31 market reflects this. A share bought at 4¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by May 31, a 25x return. For that to pay off, traders would need to see rapid escalation or regime destabilization, and the current data doesn’t support either.

What to watch

US military responses or Iranian leadership shifts. The next CENTCOM briefing or IRGC command announcements could move these markets.

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