3 hours ago
11
60 Minutes disclosed that Iran possesses nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for 10-11 nuclear bombs. The Polymarket contract on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium by April 30 has dropped to 37.9% YES, down from 65% yesterday.
Market reaction
The June 30 market sits at 46% YES, and the December 31 deadline holds at 64.5% YES. The 27-point gap between the April and June contracts suggests traders expect negotiations or diplomatic movement in that window rather than an immediate deal.
Trading volume across these markets hit $249,831 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes only $1,546 to move the April 30 odds by five points, which means the contract is thin and vulnerable to large trades. The biggest single move was a 12-point drop at 10:27 AM, right after the report aired.
Why it matters
The 60 Minutes report is a bearish signal. Quantifying Iran’s stockpile at 10-11 bombs’ worth of material raises the bar for any near-term surrender agreement, since Iran now has more leverage and less incentive to give up a larger arsenal quickly.
What to watch
Statements from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi or President Donald Trump could move these contracts sharply. Any concrete diplomatic proposals, inspection agreements, or breakdowns in talks would directly affect the odds across all three deadlines.
If you think a deal still happens by April, buying YES at 37.9¢ pays 3.2x. The current pricing implies traders want to see actual diplomatic action before committing to the short-term contract.
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