3 hours ago
10
Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has pushed odds lower on Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31, 2026, now at 74.5% YES, down from 82% a day ago.
## Market reaction
The Trump Hormuz Blockade Announcement market dropped from 82% to 74.5% over the past 24 hours. With 38 days until resolution, daily volume is at $27,582 in USDC. The largest single move was a 3-point drop at 5:36 AM, triggered by Iran’s latest statement.
## Why it matters
Order book depth on the US Blockade of Hormuz market shows $8,549 required to move the odds 5 points. That relatively thin liquidity means any new statement from Trump or Iranian leadership could move the price fast. Iran’s position that it won’t reopen the strait while the blockade holds makes a diplomatic resolution harder within the 38-day window. At 74.5¢, YES shares pay out $1 if Trump announces the blockade lift by May 31, a 1.34x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline.
## What to watch
Track Trump’s statements on Truth Social and official White House communications. Watch for any shifts in tone from Iranian officials or changes in US Navy operational posture near the strait.
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