3 hours ago
14
Iran’s decision to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it has traders reconsidering the likelihood of a US blockade lift. Odds for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 are now at 78% YES, down from 90% a day ago.
The market dropped 5 points at 12:19 PM yesterday. The 78% for May 31 reflects trader skepticism about a near-term resolution. The April 19 market now sits at just 8% YES as that deadline looms.
Meanwhile, odds on the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 ticked up slightly to 8.5% YES from 8% a week ago. This market is thin: $1,412 in daily USDC volume and only $304 needed to shift odds by 5 points.
The blockade market moved $29,602 in USDC over the last 24 hours. A 5-point move costs $1,419, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 6-point drop at 6:05 PM yesterday.
Current odds point to skepticism about quick de-escalation. The naval confrontations between the US and Iran suggest the blockade continues. At 78¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a potential 1.28x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within 43 days.
Watch for developments in the Islamabad negotiations and any official statements from Trump or Iranian officials. These will directly move the market.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) ·