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Iran has restarted production of ballistic missiles, drones, and air-defense systems, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing US and Israeli intelligence assessments. The resumption, which began in late May 2026, comes after extensive strikes by US and Israeli forces earlier in the year targeted the country’s military infrastructure.
The speed of the recovery has apparently caught some analysts off guard. Production rates are projected to reach anywhere from 50 to over 200 missiles per month, surpassing initial Israeli expectations for how quickly Tehran could reconstitute its arsenal.
What the intelligence shows
Satellite imagery has played a central role in tracking Iran’s military rebuild. Of 69 known missile storage sites, 50 had been reopened by mid-2026, providing the logistical backbone for a rapid recovery effort.
Key facilities like Khojir, a military complex east of Tehran long associated with Iran’s missile and weapons research programs, have shown increased activity. Reconstruction efforts appear to leverage surviving components and infrastructure that weathered the earlier strikes.
Pre-war estimates placed Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile in the thousands, with roughly 2,500 medium-range missiles capable of reaching Israel. Post-strike assessments suggest Iran retained approximately 70% of that pre-war arsenal, a retention rate that provided the foundation for restarting production relatively quickly.
Iranian officials have stated publicly that both missile and drone production either continued or increased during the ceasefire period.
The geopolitical context
Iran’s missile program has historically served multiple strategic purposes. It provides leverage in negotiations, deters direct military action against Iranian territory, and underwrites Tehran’s support for proxy forces across the region.
For Israel, the calculus is particularly pointed. The 2,500 medium-range missiles that intelligence assessed before the war were specifically cataloged as capable of reaching Israeli territory. Retaining 70% of that stockpile means roughly 1,750 such missiles survived, and the production lines are now adding to that number monthly.
Market and strategic implications
The production range of 50 to 200-plus missiles per month is notably wide, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the intelligence community about the full scope of Iran’s recovery. At the low end, Iran would add 600 missiles annually to its arsenal. At the high end, that figure exceeds 2,400, enough to fully replace pre-war stockpiles within a single year.
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