4 hours ago
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Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dismissed President Trump’s recent claims as false, pointing to continued friction over the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 sits at 86% YES.
Ghalibaf’s statements increase the likelihood of a continued blockade, but the May 31 market holds steady at 86% YES. The April 17 market at 8% YES is effectively dead with only a day left, while April 19 sits at 13.5% YES, showing trader skepticism about a near-term resolution. The biggest jump is between April 19 and May 31, which suggests traders expect developments sometime after April.
The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 30.5% YES, consistent with Ghalibaf’s hardline stance. That market has $267,520 in actual USDC traded daily, showing strong interest but deep skepticism about a peace deal in six days.
Across Hormuz markets, $33,928 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book shows $3,730 is needed to move the May market 5 points, thick enough to reflect genuine trader sentiment. The largest move was a single 2-point spike, showing stability despite Ghalibaf’s rhetoric.
Ghalibaf’s remarks point toward increasing tensions, consistent with the market’s expectation of continued blockade and lower peace deal probability. At 82¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a 1.22x return. For that payout to make sense, you’d need to believe the blockade situation resolves favorably in the next 45 days.
Watch for Trump’s posts or any US Navy operational updates. These are the most likely catalysts for a shift in blockade status or peace prospects.
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