Iran’s Rezaei threatens oil export halt, nuclear policy shift amid US tensions

Recent statements by Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, have sparked significant debate in Tehran regarding his authority and intentions. Rezaei has threatened to halt Iranian oil exports, target U.S. allies, and consider changes to Iran’s nuclear policy. These threats come amidst ongoing armed conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel, which has been active since February 2026. Rezaei’s comments indicate a potential escalation, particularly given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear leverage. Markets appear to interpret these developments as decreasing the likelihood of a US-Iran deal in 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Rezaei’s threats to stop oil exports and consider nuclear changes suggest increased tensions between Iran and the U.S.
• Market pricing suggests participants view these developments as decreasing the probability of a US-Iran deal in 2026.
• The current geopolitical situation, including the conflict involving regional allies, is consistent with a decline in YES probabilities for a deal.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any official responses from Tehran that could clarify Rezaei’s authority and the government’s stance on his statements. Developments at the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran’s nuclear activities, could further influence the market. Additionally, any diplomatic engagement or military activity involving the United States, Israel, and their allies may impact the prospects for a US-Iran deal by the end of 2026. Markets would likely react to either de-escalation or escalation in the region.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.