Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in February US-Israeli strikes

A recent report by Noor News, a security-linked media outlet, reveals that a meeting at the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in February centered on preparations for managing domestic protests and responding to a suspected imminent US-Israeli attack. This meeting aligns with a broader pattern of Iranian internal-security planning amidst escalating tensions with the US and Israel. The meeting reportedly took place just before the February 28 joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which resulted in Khamenei’s death. These developments coincide with an increase in activity suggesting a rise in probability for a change in Iran’s leadership by the end of the year.

Key Takeaways

• The meeting at Khamenei’s office appears consistent with scenarios of heightened internal insecurity and anticipated external military threats.
• Pricing suggests an increased perceived likelihood of Iran’s leadership change following reports of Khamenei’s targeted killing.
• Current odds for a leadership change by December 31 have risen, reflecting heightened focus on potential regime instability.

What to Watch

The Iranian leadership market remains sensitive to further confirmations of Khamenei’s death or incapacitation, which could significantly affect pricing. Key indicators to monitor include announcements from the Assembly of Experts, public appearances by Khamenei, and movements by potential successors like Mojtaba Khamenei. Markets will also be attentive to any new reports from major news outlets or state media that could influence the perceived stability of Iran’s regime.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.