Iran to add US-Israel war to school textbooks amid ceasefire

Iran plans to include the US-Israel war in school textbooks, and the odds for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 5% yesterday, on the Israel-Iran peace deal market.

Market reaction

The April 30 peace deal contract sits at 2%, while the June 30 contract trades at 12%. That 10-point gap over 61 days suggests traders expect a possible catalyst after April. Combined 24-hour face value is $29,486, with actual USDC traded at $1,978. The April 30 market is particularly thin: just $110 would move the price by 5 percentage points, leaving it open to large swings from small trades. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike.

Why it matters

Embedding the conflict in school textbooks is a way to entrench a specific narrative about the war in the next generation of Iranian citizens. That kind of institutional commitment makes diplomatic concessions harder to sell domestically and makes a near-term peace deal less likely. The curriculum change signals that Iran’s government sees the conflict as something to memorialize, not resolve quickly.

What to watch

Statements from Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are the main catalysts. Any indication of resumed talks or a joint statement could move these odds fast, especially given how thin the April 30 book is.

At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is signed by April 30, a 50x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a near-term diplomatic breakthrough or a sharp reversal in Iranian domestic politics.

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