3 hours ago
10
Iranian MP Mahmoud Nabavian called US talks “meaningless and harmful,” casting doubt on any peace deal by April 22. The April 22 market now sits at 19.5% YES, down sharply from 40% yesterday.
Nabavian is a hardliner in the delegation, and his comments drove the April 22 market down over 20 points in 24 hours. The April 30 market dropped to 37.5% YES from 61%. Longer-term markets like May 31 and June 30 saw smaller declines, which suggests traders still see a chance that negotiations recover on a longer timeline.
Trading volume on the April 22 contract is $610,678 in USDC. It takes $9,404 to move the odds 5 points, a thick order book. Still, sentiment shifts can trigger fast price swings; the market dropped 5 points within minutes during the sell-off.
Nabavian’s remarks expose how fragile the Islamabad talks are. At 19.5¢, buying YES on April 22 pays $1 if a deal materializes, a 5.1x return. That requires a diplomatic turnaround in four days.
Watch for Pakistan’s next move as mediator. Any shift from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi or a change in US strategy could swing these markets again.
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