3 hours ago
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has sidelined Iran’s president and taken control of key state functions. Iranian regime fall by June 30 is at 8% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
The IRGC’s consolidation of power points toward greater regime instability. The June 30 market jumped 2 points in the last 24 hours. There’s a 7-point spread between the April 30 market (1%) and the June 30 market (8%), which suggests traders expect a catalyst sometime in the next two months.
Meanwhile, the US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 26% YES, down from 32% yesterday. The IRGC’s hardline stance makes negotiations or a ceasefire less likely. With the IRGC controlling state functions and maintaining a military posture, traders are pricing in less diplomatic engagement.
The regime fall market trades $33,064 in daily USDC volume, with $16,963 needed to move the odds 5 points. The IRGC’s actions could destabilize the regime, but the market’s term structure shows traders betting on a longer timeline for any real change.
For contrarians, buying YES at 8¢ offers a 12.5x return if the regime falls by June 30. That bet depends on further IRGC fractures or an unexpected leadership crisis.
Watch for Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances or IRGC defections. Any crack in IRGC cohesion or change in leadership visibility could move these markets fast.
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