Is the US Dollar Index (DXY) Headed Higher After a 15-Year Trendline Retest?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 100.2 after retesting an ascending trendline that has supported it since May 2011. A resistance zone at 100.5 still caps the recovery.

BeInCrypto examined the monthly, weekly, and daily charts to map the next likely move. The Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on June 16-17 could decide the direction.

US Dollar Index Defends a Trendline That Has Held Since 2011

The monthly chart shows an ascending trendline that has defined the dollar’s long-term direction since May 2011. The line was almost retested in June 2014 and confirmed again in June 2021.

In February 2026, the index returned to this line once more. So far, the level has held.

The broader structure also remains constructive. DXY has printed a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past 15 years, including the 2022 peak near 115.

DXY monthly chart / Source: Tradingview

If the trendline holds, the current retest may become the next higher low. A repeat of previous cycles could then push the index above 115.

Dollar strength matters for crypto investors because of Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-running inverse correlation with DXY. However, the monthly relative strength index (RSI) remains neutral and signals no clear momentum.

Weekly Chart Still Treats the Recovery as a Correction

The weekly timeframe complicates the bullish picture. DXY climbed in a parabolic run from December 2020 until September 2022, peaking at 114.80. The breakdown from that parabola started a long distribution period and a downtrend.

Within that downtrend, the index printed a swing high near 110.18 in early 2025. The decline that followed bottomed at 95.55.

DXY weekly chart / Source: Tradingview

From this perspective, the ongoing recovery looks like a correction rather than a new uptrend. The key area sits near 99.5 to 100, where former support has turned into resistance.

A weekly close above this zone would validate the bullish breakout scenario. A rejection, in contrast, would likely resume the slide back to 95.55. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI reads 57, which indicates neutral momentum.

DXY Price Prediction Hinges on the 100.5 Resistance Zone

The daily chart provides the most detailed view of the battle. A support area near 97.5 has been retested twice, forming a double bottom or W pattern.

The measured target of this formation sits at 101.07, nearly 1% above the current price. However, the pattern remains unconfirmed. Resistance at 100.4 to 100.5 still caps the index, and DXY was rejected from this zone twice in March.

A second structure adds a bearish angle. Recent price action has formed an ascending wedge, a pattern that typically resolves downward. Its target lies near 98.5, roughly 1.7% below current levels. That target coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.547.

DXY daily chart / Source: Tradingview

The daily RSI stands at 67 and approaches the overbought threshold of 70. Because the wedge’s upper band overlaps the resistance zone, a rejection on the first attempt looks likely.

Analysts have recently called DXY the most accurate macro indicator for Bitcoin’s direction, so crypto traders should watch these levels closely.

The Fed’s June 16-17 meeting is the nearest catalyst, with markets still pricing a possible rate hike in December. A daily close above 100.5 would open the path to 101.07 and revive the long-term rebound thesis, while a wedge breakdown would expose 98.5 first.

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