4 hours ago
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Israel announced that its military operation against Hezbollah is “still not complete.” Odds for Israeli military action in Greater Beirut are at 100% YES, with traders pricing in ongoing operations there.
Markets for April 1, April 5, and April 9 all sit at 100% YES, meaning traders treat operations in Beirut as already underway or certain to occur on those dates.
The market for April 14 military action against Iran sits at 0.1% YES. Traders are not pricing in any shift in focus from Hezbollah to Iran within the next few days. The April 21 market is at 7.5% YES, still showing limited expectations for Israeli action against Iran.
These odds come with a caveat: total volume across related markets is just $8,677 in USDC. The depth is low enough that $273 can move the April 14 market 5 percentage points, which means individual large orders can shift prices without representing broad trader agreement.
The 100% YES odds for Beirut action show traders expect Israel to continue operations there. With a ceasefire and diplomatic efforts still in play, the market is pricing military escalation, not de-escalation.
Watch for statements from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz. Any announcement about extending military operations could reinforce these odds or push the Iran-related markets higher.
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