Jordi Visser: The rise of AI surpasses oil’s economic impact, Bitcoin’s value is tied to fiat wealth, and the best time to invest in stocks is during recession sentiment | Forward Guidance

Key takeaways

• The global economy is increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence rather than traditional factors like oil prices.
• A significant transition from chatbot technology to more advanced AI systems has increased compute demands dramatically.
• The amount of compute needed for productivity has surged, indicating a shift in technology utilization.
• CPI is expected to rise above 4% year over year, impacting market positions and investment strategies.
• The best time to invest in stocks will be when market sentiment shifts towards recession in the next six weeks.
• Bitcoin is fundamentally supported by wealth created through the fiat system, not by new money.
• Enterprises will face challenges adapting to productivity increases driven by entrepreneurs leveraging technology.
• Bitcoin’s value should not be assessed using discounted cash flow models due to its lack of cash flows.
• Despite current unattractive narratives, Bitcoin remains a crucial asset as traditional investment strategies falter.
• The unemployment rate is unlikely to rise significantly due to labor shortages and demographic issues.
• Technological advancements are reshaping productivity and impacting traditional business structures.
• The rise of AI is expected to have a far greater impact on the global economy than oil prices historically did.
• The shift to an agentic era signifies a major trend in AI landscape, demanding increased computational resources.

Guest intro

Jordi Visser is Head of AI Macro Research at 22V Research and CEO of Visser Labs. He previously served as President and Chief Investment Officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers from 2005 to 2024, after starting his career at Morgan Stanley in emerging markets and equity derivatives. His work explores AI’s disruption of economic frameworks, productivity, and asset pricing.

The agentic era and its implications

• We have entered an agentic era where the demand for compute has increased dramatically.

  — Jordi Visser

• The transition from chatbot technology to more advanced AI systems is a major technological shift.

• The amount of compute we need has gone up by a thousand times already from what we went through.

  — Jordi Visser

• This era marks a significant increase in computational demands for AI technologies.
• Understanding this shift is crucial for grasping current trends in the AI landscape.
• The agentic era represents a new phase in technological advancement with broader implications.

• What happened in November and into December was probably the most important point of all of our lives in terms of transitioning from a chatbot era.

  — Jordi Visser

• The demand for compute resources has surged, reflecting the growing complexity of AI applications.

AI’s impact on the global economy

• The global economy is transitioning to an era where artificial intelligence will have a far greater impact than traditional factors like oil prices.

  — Jordi Visser

• AI is becoming a more significant economic driver than oil, which historically influenced global markets.

• Oil doesn’t matter to the global economy to the scale that it did forty fifty years ago.

  — Jordi Visser

• Trillions of dollars are now flowing into AI, highlighting its economic importance.
• The historical significance of oil prices is being overshadowed by the emerging influence of AI.
• AI’s growing impact is reshaping economic dynamics and market trends.

• It certainly doesn’t matter relative to artificial intelligence of which there are trillions of dollars going through it in the last year.

  — Jordi Visser

• Understanding AI’s role in the economy is crucial for future market strategies.

Shifts in productivity and market dynamics

• The amount of compute needed for productivity has increased dramatically, indicating a shift in how we utilize technology.

  — Jordi Visser

• Technological advancements are significantly impacting productivity across various sectors.

• CPI will rise above 4% year over year in the next two months, impacting market positions.

  — Jordi Visser

• Investors should be cautious about stock positions when CPI is high.

• The best time to buy stocks will be when the market sentiment shifts towards recession in the next six weeks.

  — Jordi Visser

• Market cycles and investor behavior during economic downturns offer strategic investment opportunities.
• The rise in compute demands reflects broader changes in technology usage and productivity.
• Understanding these shifts is crucial for navigating current market dynamics.

Bitcoin and its financial underpinnings

• Bitcoin is fundamentally supported by wealth created through the fiat system, not new money.

  — Jordi Visser

• Bitcoin’s value is linked to traditional fiat wealth rather than new financial inflows.

• Bitcoin gets funded by the wealth that’s been created in the world through the fiat system.

  — Jordi Visser

• Understanding this relationship is essential for grasping Bitcoin’s role in the economy.
• Bitcoin’s financial underpinnings highlight critical perspectives on its valuation.

• It doesn’t come from new money; it comes from the other assets you need a transfer of wealth.

  — Jordi Visser

• This insight is crucial for investors and analysts in the crypto space.

Challenges for enterprises in adapting to technology

• Enterprises will struggle to adapt to the rise of productivity driven by entrepreneurs leveraging technology.

  — Jordi Visser

• The labor arbitrage for enterprises poses challenges amidst technological advancements.

• The rise of entrepreneurs and the enterprises will have a very hard time adopting to this.

  — Jordi Visser

• Entrepreneurs with innovative ideas are driving productivity changes.
• Enterprises face potential disruptions in labor markets and business operations.
• Understanding these challenges is crucial for navigating the evolving economic landscape.
• Technological advancements are reshaping traditional business structures and employment.

Bitcoin valuation and investment narratives

• Bitcoin’s value should not be assessed using discounted cash flow models because it lacks cash flows.

  — Jordi Visser

• Bitcoin’s valuation differs fundamentally from traditional equity valuation methods.

• The narrative for Bitcoin may not be attractive now because you’ve been able to make money in the mag seven.

  — Jordi Visser

• Despite current unattractive narratives, Bitcoin remains a crucial asset.
• Traditional investment strategies are faltering, highlighting Bitcoin’s strategic importance.
• Understanding these valuation differences is essential for investors in the crypto space.
• Bitcoin’s role in the investment landscape is evolving amidst changing market conditions.

Labor market dynamics and unemployment forecasts

• The unemployment rate is unlikely to rise significantly due to labor shortages and demographic issues.

  — Jordi Visser

• Current labor market dynamics are influenced by demographic and immigration factors.

• We’ve reached kind of peak employment… we’ve got a demographic issue and we’ve got an immigration issue.

  — Jordi Visser

• Labor shortages are impacting employment trends and forecasts.
• Understanding these dynamics is crucial for predicting future labor market conditions.
• The labor market is facing challenges amidst demographic shifts and immigration policies.
• This insight provides a clear prediction about the labor market based on current economic conditions.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.