JPMorgan estimates US net equity issuance could hit $1.2T by 2027

For the better part of two decades, US corporations have been vacuuming up their own shares at a pace that far outstripped new stock issuance. The result: a net negative equity supply that quietly reshaped how markets functioned. JPMorgan now says that era is over.

The bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, project that US net equity issuance will hit roughly $200 billion in 2026, up from approximately zero the prior year. By 2027, that figure could surge past $1.2 trillion. The catalyst is a familiar one: artificial intelligence.

From buyback bonanza to equity flood

From 2006 to 2025, total net US equity issuance was approximately negative $430 billion. In English: companies collectively removed more shares from the market than they created, largely through aggressive buyback programs.

Now JPMorgan is saying the pendulum is swinging hard in the other direction. The shift from roughly zero net issuance to $200 billion in a single year is notable enough. The jump to $1.2 trillion the following year is something else entirely.

That $1.2 trillion figure isn’t purely driven by traditional IPOs and secondary offerings. JPMorgan’s estimate factors in mechanical effects like lock-up expirations and index adjustments, which the bank estimates could contribute to a $1.3 trillion rise in share counts for 2027.

AI is writing the checks

The primary engine behind this projected equity surge is the voracious capital appetite of AI infrastructure. Building and operating the data centers, chips, and networking equipment needed to power large language models and AI applications requires money on a scale that internal cash flows and debt markets alone cannot comfortably supply.

Alphabet is a case in point. The Google parent has indicated an equity raise plan of $80 billion to support its capital requirements.

The timing matters. JPMorgan’s note, dated mid-June 2026, lands in a period where discussions around major IPO flows in tech and AI sectors have intensified. After a prolonged drought in the IPO market following the 2021 boom-and-bust cycle, the window appears to be reopening with force.

What this means for investors

The most immediate implication is straightforward supply-and-demand math. More shares hitting the market means more equity supply competing for investor dollars. All else being equal, that creates downward pressure on valuations.

The lock-up expiration component adds another wrinkle. When IPO lock-ups expire and insiders become free to sell, the effective supply of tradeable shares increases beyond what the initial offering suggests. JPMorgan’s inclusion of these mechanical effects in its $1.3 trillion share count estimate for 2027 suggests the true supply impact could arrive in waves rather than as a steady stream.

The buyback era compressed equity supply and arguably inflated per-share metrics across the S&P 500. Earnings growth will need to do more of the heavy lifting to justify valuations, because the supply tailwind is now blowing in the opposite direction.

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