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JPMorgan has laid out a case that humanoid robots are about to become the most popular new hires in American warehouses. The investment bank’s latest research projects that the global robotics market could balloon from roughly $100 billion in 2025 to $2.5 trillion in annual sales by 2035, with warehousing and manufacturing leading the charge.
The core argument is straightforward: robots are getting cheaper than people. Operating costs for humanoid robots in warehouse settings are expected to land under $10 to $12 per hour. The average US warehouse worker costs about $30 per hour.
The labor gap robots are built to fill
The US manufacturing sector is staring down a genuine workforce crisis. Current unfilled manufacturing job vacancies sit at 462,000, and JPMorgan projects that number to climb to 1.6 million by 2030.
JPMorgan estimates humanoid robots could immediately fill about 25% of these manufacturing roles. As the technology matures, that share could reach 50% by the end of the decade. The bank is careful to frame humanoids as complements to human labor rather than outright replacements.
The productivity catch, and what it costs
Right now, you need roughly two humanoid robots to match the output of one human worker. JPMorgan expects that ratio to improve to about 1.2 to 1.3 humanoids per human equivalent as artificial intelligence, manipulation skills, and supply chain integration advance.
The average selling price for a humanoid robot is projected at about $120,000. For context, Tesla has publicly targeted a price range of $20,000 to $30,000 for its Optimus humanoid, a figure that would dramatically change the adoption curve if Elon Musk’s team can actually hit it.
China is shipping, the US is still prototyping
In 2025, Chinese companies like Unitree and AGIBOT shipped over 5,000 humanoid units. US competitors, including Tesla and Figure AI, trailed by a significant margin.
The FCC recently added foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots to a restricted list, citing national security concerns.
What this means for the market
JPMorgan’s $2.5 trillion market forecast by 2035 reflects a broader consensus forming across Wall Street that robotics is transitioning from a speculative bet to an investable sector with identifiable revenue streams.
Early deployment is likely to concentrate in structured environments like factories and warehouses, where tasks are repetitive and the physical layout is predictable. JPMorgan’s report makes clear that the first real proving ground will be the warehouse floor, where the economics already pencil out even with today’s imperfect technology.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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