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The July jobs report shows up to 23,000 lost jobs instead of gaining the 80,000 forecast, and revisions erased another 103,000. Federal Reserve rate bets flipped within minutes of Friday’s release.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed on the news. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but for an uncomfortable reason. People stopped looking for work.
July Jobs Report Revisions Deepen the Shock
The headline number was bad. The fine print was worse. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report cut May’s gain to 63,000 and June’s to just 20,000. That quiet markdown wiped out 103,000 jobs.
Hiring was already thin before July. Payrolls averaged gains of just 34,000 a month over the past year. July snapped even that weak streak.
Moreover, the losses were not spread evenly. Local government education shed 50,000 jobs. Retail and finance also cut staff. Health care added 22,000 positions, and little else grew.
The falling jobless rate hides the real story. Fewer Americans are working or even looking. Participation has dropped 0.7 percentage point since January, reaching 61.4%.
Paychecks tell a similar tale. Wages grew 3.2% over the past year, while June’s inflation ran at 3.5%. In real terms, the average worker is falling behind
“The U.S. economy “unexpectedly” lost 23K jobs in July, while June’s gain was revised down to a mere 20K. The unemployment rate slipped a bit because more people left the labor force, as the participation rate fell to 61.4%, the lowest in 50 years excluding COVID. Stagflation!” Economist Peter Schiff argued the mix points to something worse than a slowdown.
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Fed Bets Flip, and Crypto Smells Opportunity
Rate markets moved fast. CME Group’s FedWatch tool now gives a September hold 55.9% odds, against 44.1% for a hike. One week ago, the hold camp sat at just 33%.
Interest Rate Probabilities for September. Source: CME FedWatch ToolThe swing matters because the Fed is split. It held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in late July, yet three Fed officials dissented and pushed for a hike.
Unemployment hit a two-year low only because fewer people searched for work.
Against this backdrop, the general perception is that this was a messy read for policymakers.
“Take our government workers, world cup, jobs rose 100,000,” Kevin Hassett said in an interview.
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For crypto, the math is simple. Fewer hikes mean less pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin, trading near $65,172, rose 0.7% in 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets data.
Bitcoin has also run this play before. A weak print sparked June’s jobs report rally, which faded once hawkish Fed talk returned. The token likewise lagged a metals rally that gave gold its best week of 2026, leaving room to catch up if yields keep sliding.
Everything now rides on one date. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands on Wednesday, August 12. A cool number locks in the dovish shift. A hot one revives hike bets before the Fed’s September 15 to 16 meeting, where fresh economic projections are also due.
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