KPMG reports only 7% of business leaders can prove AI investment returns

Businesses are pouring money into AI like it’s the last open bar at a wedding. The hangover is arriving before the buzz: just 7% of senior leaders say they can actually demonstrate a positive return on those investments, according to KPMG’s latest global survey.

The consulting firm’s Global AI Pulse for Q2 2026, released June 24, surveyed 2,145 C-suite and senior business leaders from organizations pulling in more than $50 million in annual revenue across 20 countries. The fieldwork ran from April 28 to May 25.

The paradox of AI enthusiasm without proof

The 7% figure looks even stranger when placed next to another data point from the same survey: 76% of leaders say AI is delivering “meaningful business value.” That’s up 12 percentage points from the prior quarter, when 64% said the same thing.

Part of the explanation sits in the cost column. A full 42% of organizations only have partial visibility into what they’re spending on AI. Another 33% say limited understanding of usage costs is a significant deployment challenge. Hard to calculate a return on investment when you’re fuzzy on the “investment” half of the equation.

Average AI spending across the surveyed organizations sits at $188 million per company. That’s not pocket change, and yet nearly half of these businesses can’t fully track where the money goes.

CEO accountability changes the math

The survey’s most actionable finding may be about who’s in charge. Organizations where the CEO is explicitly accountable for AI outcomes report established ROI at a rate of 14%, more than triple the 4% seen in organizations without that top-level ownership.

Cost visibility matters even more. Leaders with strong usage-based cost tracking are five times more likely to report measurable returns: 15% compared to just 3% for those without it.

KPMG’s data also shows that the segment of organizations in the “driving adoption” maturity stage jumped from 13% in Q1 to 22% in Q2. That’s a significant acceleration in just one quarter, suggesting more companies are moving past pilots and proofs of concept into full-scale deployment.

Investor pressure is building

About 24% of leaders report feeling pressure from investors to demonstrate tangible value from AI spending. Meanwhile, 79% of leaders cite AI as a top investment priority.

The most telling number in the entire survey might be the simplest comparison: 76% of leaders feel AI is valuable, but only 7% can prove it.

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