Mark Carney offers to double oil exports to US in trade talks, reshaping North American energy dynamics

Canada just put a massive energy card on the table. Prime Minister Mark Carney offered to ship an additional 3 to 4 million barrels of oil per day to the United States during trade talks at the White House last fall, according to US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra, who confirmed the details on Monday.

If fully realized, the proposal would roughly double the volume of Canadian crude flowing south of the border. Canadian oil already accounts for approximately 60% of US crude imports, making it the single most important source of foreign energy for the American economy.

The deal behind the deal

Hoekstra described the offer as part of a “preliminary” agreement, suggesting the framework is still being negotiated rather than finalized.

Here’s how dependent we’re talking: 85% of US electricity imports and 99% of US natural gas imports come from Canada.

Back in October 2025, Carney announced an ambitious goal to double Canada’s non-US exports over the next decade.

The Pacific pivot

In July 2026, Carney secured a framework agreement for a major pipeline that would transport Alberta crude to British Columbia’s Pacific coast, projecting capacity of 1 million barrels per day.

The destination: Asian markets. Specifically, the energy-hungry economies that have been looking to diversify their own supply chains away from Middle Eastern and Russian crude.

What this means for crypto and commodity investors

Energy prices are one of the most important inputs into the broader inflation picture. A potential doubling of Canadian crude exports to the US could put downward pressure on North American oil prices, or at minimum provide a stabilizing force during supply disruptions.

Canada remains one of the largest Bitcoin mining jurisdictions in the world, and electricity costs, directly tied to energy policy, are the single biggest variable for mining profitability.

Investors should watch for any formal announcement on the pipeline framework and for signals from USMCA review timelines.

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