Matchbook targets US market with prediction markets and sports betting

A 15-year-old UK sports betting exchange wants to do something no one else has quite pulled off: offer both prediction markets and traditional sports betting under one roof in the United States.

Matchbook, a peer-to-peer betting exchange that has operated in the UK for over a decade and a half, is making a calculated push into the American market. Its US associate, RSBIX LLC, filed for CFTC approval back in September 2025, and the company’s leadership initially expected clearance by March 2026. That timeline has since stretched, with approval now potentially arriving as late as Q3 2026.

The UK proving ground

Before crossing the Atlantic, Matchbook decided to build a proof-of-concept at home. In January 2026, the company launched a dedicated prediction market platform in the UK, offering simple binary yes/no contracts across sports, politics, and other events.

The contracts are priced in probability terms. If you believe England will win the World Cup, you buy a “yes” contract at whatever price the market sets, and that price reflects what the crowd collectively thinks the probability is.

By mid-2026, the UK platform was fully operational and had already integrated industry partners. ADI Predictstreet came on board as a partner for World Cup 2026 coverage.

Squaring off against Kalshi and Polymarket

Matchbook’s pitch to differentiate itself rests on two pillars: its exchange model and its white-label ambitions.

Peer-to-peer exchanges work differently from traditional sportsbooks. Instead of betting against the house, users bet against each other, with the platform taking a small cut. Matchbook has built a reputation in the UK for low commissions and deep liquidity.

Matchbook wants to offer its prediction market infrastructure as a product that other companies can rebrand and deploy, positioning itself as a picks-and-shovels provider for the broader prediction market ecosystem rather than competing purely as a consumer-facing platform.

The regulatory puzzle

Kalshi had to fight a legal battle with the CFTC to list political event contracts, eventually winning the right to offer election-related markets.

For Matchbook, the wrinkle is that it wants to bridge two worlds that American regulators treat very differently. Sports betting is regulated state by state, with each jurisdiction setting its own licensing requirements. Prediction markets, by contrast, fall under federal CFTC oversight when structured as event contracts. Operating both under one umbrella means navigating two entirely separate regulatory regimes simultaneously.

What to watch

The key milestones to track are straightforward: whether RSBIX LLC secures CFTC approval by Q3 2026, which states Matchbook targets for sports betting licenses, and whether the white-label strategy attracts meaningful distribution partners.

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