Micron stock could rise 70% as TD Cowen analyst points to overlooked demand catalyst

Micron Technology shares have been stuck in a valuation rut, trading around $930 despite a business that’s growing at a pace most chipmakers would envy. TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar thinks the disconnect is about to close, reiterating a Buy rating with a $1,600 price target that implies roughly 70% upside from current levels.

The missing ingredient, according to Sankar, isn’t better margins. It’s investor confidence that the demand driving those margins will actually stick around.

The numbers behind the bull case

Micron is set to report fiscal Q4 2026 results on September 30, and the consensus estimates paint a picture of a company in full transformation mode. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share of around $31.14, up from $3.03 a year earlier. Revenue projections are equally striking. Analysts forecast approximately $50.42 billion for the period, representing a year-over-year increase of roughly 345%.

The average Wall Street price target for Micron falls between $1,300 and $1,550, translating to a consensus Strong Buy rating. Sankar’s $1,600 target sits at the upper end of that range.

Why margins aren’t the main event anymore

Sankar’s note makes an important distinction that separates his thesis from the standard semiconductor bull case. He estimates Micron has already completed more than 80% of its current margin-expansion cycle, with gross margins expected to peak near 89% in the second quarter of calendar year 2027.

What hasn’t been priced in, Sankar argues, is the durability of demand. The AI infrastructure buildout has created a structural appetite for high-bandwidth memory that goes beyond a single product cycle.

The AI memory tailwind

Micron has positioned itself as one of three major suppliers in the HBM market alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. The company has aggressively ramped production and secured multi-year supply agreements with major customers, which provides the kind of revenue visibility that commodity memory makers historically haven’t enjoyed.

What to watch heading into earnings

The September 30 earnings report will be a critical test of the bull thesis. Investors will be scrutinizing not just whether Micron hits the consensus revenue and EPS estimates, but what management says about forward demand signals. Guidance for the first half of fiscal 2027 will matter more than backward-looking results.

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