Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF attracts $100M in first week

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF launch attracted $100 million in its first week. The market for Bitcoin price between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15 sits at 100% YES, up from 44% a day ago.

The 56-point jump in odds tracks with institutional money entering through the ETF. This market saw a 31-point spike at 3:31 PM, moving from 48% to 78%. The Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market sits at 3.4% YES, barely up from last week’s 3%, suggesting traders don’t think the ETF alone is enough to push Bitcoin to new highs.

The April 15 market is locked at 100%, but trading volumes tell a different story. Daily trade face value is $40,148, and it takes just $1,797 to swing the price 5 points in the June 30 all-time high market, a sign of thin liquidity.

Morgan Stanley’s ETF grabbed headlines but doesn’t change the picture on its own. At 16¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high by December 31, a 6.25x return. For that bet to work, traders need to believe this ETF triggers a wider wave of institutional buying.

Watch ETF inflow reports and statements from BlackRock and Fidelity, which could sustain or kill this momentum. Jerome Powell’s next FOMC minutes release matters too: any signal toward rate cuts would shift sentiment fast.

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