2 hours ago
5
Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF pulled in over $100M during its first week, with $83.6M going directly into Bitcoin. The market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, now sits at 38% YES.
Market reaction
The MSBT inflow has had little visible effect on Bitcoin price predictions for April. The market for Bitcoin hitting $78,000-$80,000 on April 15 is at 100% YES, with traders clearly locked into that range as the date approaches.
The April 2026 market predicting a dip to $60,000 has no odds currently available, though U.S.-Iran tensions are a factor traders are weighing.
Why it matters
The $100,000 by December 31, 2026 market has moved from 34% to 38%. Daily USDC volume is $1,600, and it takes roughly $8,640 to shift odds by 5 percentage points. That’s enough liquidity to function but thin enough that a single large trade can move the price meaningfully.
A $100M ETF launch from Morgan Stanley is a concrete data point for institutional demand. But the geopolitical situation, particularly U.S.-Iran tensions, works against near-term price momentum. At 38¢, a YES share pays 2.63x if Bitcoin hits the target.
What to watch
U.S.-Iran developments could move Bitcoin in either direction. Federal Reserve statements and any new major asset manager allocations to Bitcoin are the other catalysts worth tracking.
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