Nicolai Tangen says AI and robotics may drive productivity gains and deflation within three years

The man who oversees more money than anyone else on the planet thinks AI is about to do something economists have been struggling to achieve for years: bring prices down.

Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, told Bloomberg that artificial intelligence and robotics could significantly increase productivity and reduce prices in the coming years.

Norway’s trillion-dollar AI experiment

Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, the sovereign wealth fund NBIM manages, has already integrated AI across its trading and analysis functions. The result: a roughly 20% productivity increase internally, with no plans to grow headcount.

The fund is doing more with the same number of people, and saving hundreds of millions of kroner in operational costs along the way.

For Tangen, the internal results are a preview of what he expects to see across the broader economy. His thesis is straightforward: AI and humanoid robotics will eventually produce enough output gains that economic growth outpaces inflation, creating a deflationary environment. He estimates this shift could take roughly three years to materialize, as output needs time to catch up to demand.

The deflation argument, unpacked

His argument centers on the idea that AI directly counteracts the inflationary pressures currently squeezing the global economy. Rising tariffs, higher energy costs, and supply chain friction have all pushed prices upward in recent years. AI-driven automation, in Tangen’s view, can absorb and offset those cost pressures by making production cheaper and faster.

He’s made this case publicly at several high-profile venues, including the Economic Club of New York and Bloomberg’s Oslo conference. The consistency of the message suggests this isn’t a passing observation. It’s a core thesis shaping how the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund thinks about its portfolio positioning.

What this means for markets

The labor market sits at the center of this transition. Tangen’s own fund demonstrates the model: stable headcount, rising output.

The three-year timeline Tangen has outlined also matters for tactical positioning. It’s long enough that investors can’t simply front-run the trade with short-term options, but short enough that strategic portfolio shifts need to start now. Companies already deploying AI at scale, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, and financial services, may be the earliest beneficiaries of this productivity wave.

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