Nvidia signals downside risk for Micron before 2029

Nvidia has quietly laid out a roadmap for its memory purchases over the next several years, and the numbers tell a story with a very specific expiration date. The GPU giant has committed to $267 billion in forward purchase agreements for high-bandwidth memory and related supplies through its fiscal 2029, which ends in January 2030. After that? The spending falls off a cliff.

The spending curve that bends sharply downward

Nvidia’s fiscal year commitments break down like this: $92 billion in fiscal 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028, and $88 billion in fiscal 2029. Then comes fiscal 2030. Nvidia’s commitments drop to just $6 billion. That’s a roughly 93% decline from the prior year.

Nvidia sources HBM from Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, so the $267 billion pie gets sliced three ways. When the biggest buyer in your market signals it plans to spend 93% less in a given year, the pricing dynamics for your entire product category are about to change.

Nvidia itself has acknowledged that memory prices have exceeded its own internal forecasts, a development that has been putting pressure on the company’s gross margins.

What this means for Micron’s earnings trajectory

Market analysts are projecting that memory demand peaks around 2028, which aligns neatly with Nvidia’s spending commitments. After that peak, the risk of oversupply grows substantially. Micron’s earnings growth is expected to moderate meaningfully once Nvidia’s purchase volumes normalize.

Analyst consensus currently shows a median price target that favors Nvidia over Micron, suggesting the market sees more upside in the buyer of memory than in its sellers.

The competitive landscape adds pressure

SK Hynix has been the early leader in HBM supply for Nvidia’s AI chips and has been expanding capacity to maintain that advantage. Samsung, historically the world’s largest memory chipmaker by revenue, has been racing to catch up after initially falling behind in HBM qualification with Nvidia. Both companies are pouring billions into new fabrication capacity that will come online over the next few years, right around the time Nvidia’s purchase commitments start declining.

Nvidia’s spending data suggests that the current HBM boom, while enormous, is finite. The company’s own forward commitments paint a picture of peak intensity through fiscal 2029, followed by a dramatic pullback. For Micron shareholders, the next three years may be very good. What comes after deserves serious scrutiny.

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