OpenAI forecasts $856B in computing power spending by 2030

OpenAI expects to spend roughly $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030. And it’s all going toward one thing: making AI models bigger, faster, and more capable.

The figure represents the company’s single largest expense category and has been revised upward multiple times this year. Initial projections pegged the number at $600 billion back in February 2026. By July, it had climbed to approximately $750 billion. Now it sits at $856 billion, a 43% increase from the original estimate in less than a year.

The math behind the megaspend

OpenAI’s revenue forecasts are genuinely staggering. The company projects revenue will grow from $36 billion in 2026 to $350 billion by 2030, with cumulative revenue over that five-year stretch landing near $840 billion.

The gap between what comes in and what goes out is expected to produce a negative free cash flow of $278 billion from 2026 to 2030.

For 2026 alone, compute expenditures are projected at $50 billion, a figure OpenAI President Greg Brockman laid out during testimony in May 2026.

The company raised $122 billion in a funding round in March 2026, at an estimated valuation of $852 billion. That funding is expected to be depleted by 2028.

Where the money is going

The escalating projections reflect deepening partnerships with major cloud and hardware providers. OpenAI has reportedly locked in a $300 billion deal with Oracle and a $138 billion arrangement with Amazon Web Services. Those two contracts alone account for more than half of the total projected compute spend.

Revenue ambitions and financial gravity

Growing revenue from $36 billion to $350 billion in four years would represent roughly a 10x increase.

The $350 billion revenue target for 2030 would place OpenAI among the top 20 companies globally by revenue, alongside the likes of Apple, Amazon, and Saudi Aramco.

The $122 billion funding round bought OpenAI roughly two years of runway. If the company needs to raise again in 2028, the terms will depend heavily on whether it’s hitting those intermediate revenue milestones. Missing the $36 billion target for 2026 would be a particularly ominous signal.

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