3 hours ago
15
Pakistan Army Chief Munir informed Trump that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is an obstacle to negotiations. The market for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 is at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
Traders are recalibrating after Munir’s intervention became public. The May 31 market dropped 12 points in 24 hours, a clear shift toward skepticism about near-term diplomatic progress. The April 19 market sits at 8% YES, showing almost no confidence in a quick resolution.
The largest single move in the past day was a 5-point drop for May 31 at 12:19 PM. Face value of trades over 24 hours totaled $114,885, with $29,602 in actual USDC changing hands. It takes $1,419 to move the May market 5 points, which points to moderate liquidity and vulnerability to larger orders.
Munir’s call introduces a new variable, but it’s a soft signal. At 78¢, a YES bet pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a 1.28x return. That assumes diplomatic progress within 43 days, a proposition traders now view with more caution than they did yesterday.
Watch Trump’s next public statement and any shifts in Pentagon briefings. If Munir’s involvement leads to concrete diplomatic steps, the market will move fast. Any confirmed change in blockade status would trigger a sharp repricing.
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