Pakistan opens new trade route to Iran, challenging US blockade

Pakistan’s decision to allow the transit of third-country goods to Iran via new overland corridors directly challenges the US-led blockade. The chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 is at 1.8% YES, down sharply from 10% 24 hours ago.

Pakistan’s move makes a near-term deal less likely. The April 30 market is barely registering at 1.8%, while the May 31 market sits at 29.5%, down from 38% yesterday. The June 30 market is at 46.5%, meaning traders expect any resolution to take months, not weeks.

The transit corridor undermines the blockade by giving Iran an alternative supply route, which reduces US leverage. This is reflected in the US-Iran ceasefire market holding at 100% YES. On the blockade itself, odds of Trump lifting it by May 31 have dropped to 58%, down from 72% a day ago.

Total USDC traded in the peace deal market is $854,504 across all sub-markets, with order book depth suggesting institutional participation. That said, a large single order could still move these thin markets significantly.

Pakistan’s corridor gives Iran a workaround to the blockade and weakens the US negotiating position. At 2¢, a YES share for an April 30 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 50x return. But that requires a dramatic breakthrough in the next six days.

Watch for Trump’s upcoming Situation Room meeting and any announcements from Islamabad. Either could move odds sharply.

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