Pascal raises $9M to take on Kalshi and Polymarket in the prediction market wars

The prediction market space just got a new challenger with deep pockets and a very specific thesis. Pascal, a startup built around event contracts for professional traders, has closed a $9 million Series A round led by Union Square Ventures.

The goal is ambitious but straightforward: carve out a niche between Kalshi and Polymarket, two platforms that have collectively ballooned to a combined valuation north of $37 billion. Pascal’s bet is that neither incumbent is serving institutional money well enough.

What Pascal is actually building

Pascal is trying to fix that with perpetual futures-style mechanics layered on top of event contracts. Instead of buying a simple yes/no contract that expires when an event resolves, traders can take positions that function more like the perpetual contracts found on crypto derivatives exchanges. The platform is also promising reduced trading fees and enhanced liquidity solutions.

Pascal’s founding team brings credentials from both traditional finance and crypto. Key members reportedly come from backgrounds at Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, and dYdX, one of the most established decentralized derivatives protocols.

The platform entered private beta in June 2026, meaning it’s already onboarding early users and testing its matching engine before a broader public launch.

The competitive landscape is massive, and messy

Pascal is walking into a market that features two dominant players with eye-watering valuations. Kalshi sits at roughly $22 billion, while Polymarket carries a $15 billion price tag.

Kalshi operates as a regulated CFTC-cleared exchange focused primarily on US retail customers. Polymarket built its brand on crypto-native, blockchain-based contracts that attracted a more global, crypto-savvy audience. Pascal is aiming for a third lane: institutional-grade infrastructure with sophisticated trading mechanics.

The regulatory minefield

Multiple US states are actively scrutinizing whether event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling, and several lawsuits have already been filed against existing platforms. Prediction markets exist in a gray zone between financial derivatives and wagering, and different jurisdictions are reaching different conclusions about which category applies.

What this means for investors

For crypto-native investors, the introduction of perpetual futures mechanics into prediction markets is worth watching closely. Investors should watch for three things in the coming months: whether Pascal secures any regulatory approvals or no-action letters that give it a compliance edge, how quickly it can attract market makers to provide the institutional-grade liquidity it’s promising, and whether the perpetual futures mechanic generates genuine trading volume or remains a whitepaper feature.

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