Paul Skenes’ fastball velocity drop raises Cy Young concerns

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2024-07-15/pirates-rookie-paul-skenes-newfound-stardom

Paul Skenes, a right-handed starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates, delivered an impressive performance with five scoreless innings. However, the outing raised concerns due to a noticeable number of two-strike counts and a decline in his fastball velocity. Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, has seen his average fastball speed decrease to 96.9 mph this season, down from 98.8 mph in his rookie year. Despite health reassurances from the Pirates, market participants appear to interpret the velocity reduction as a potential factor impacting his Cy Young candidacy.

Key Takeaways

• Market pricing suggests that recent performances by Paul Skenes, despite being strong, may indicate a slight decrease in his Cy Young award chances.
• Concerns about Skenes’ declining velocity appear consistent with a decrease in market confidence regarding his ability to maintain top-tier performance.
• The current odds for Skenes winning the 2026 NL Cy Young Award reflect a cautious outlook, with a notable drop in confidence over the past week.

What to Watch

Observers will closely monitor Skenes’ upcoming starts to assess if he can maintain effective pitching despite the velocity drop. Any further decline in performance could indicate a continued decrease in his Cy Young award odds. The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) and MLB analysts will provide insights into whether Skenes remains a viable contender as the season progresses. Watch for any shifts in support for other candidates like Jacob Misiorowski, who currently leads in odds.

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