Pentagon Drops First-Ever Alien Files, Polymarket Bets Hit $33 Million

Crypto-native prediction markets reacted within minutes after the Pentagon released its first declassified UAP files on Friday, more famously being labeled as the ‘Alien Files’. Polymarket’s flagship alien disclosure market has now reached a cumulative volume of over $33 million.

The Department of War launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE) on Friday. Officials posted Release 01 to a public WAR.GOV/UFO portal, with rolling tranches promised every few weeks.

Polymarket Disclosure Bets Tops $33 Million

Traders on Polymarket have wagered roughly $33 million on whether a senior U.S. official will confirm extraterrestrial life by year-end. The crypto-native prediction platform sat at 19% on May 8 after Release 01 dropped.

Bettors Wager on the US Confirming Aliens Exist. Source: Polymarket

A separate market on whether Trump declassifies new UFO files this year prices December 31 at 83%. Bettors appear positioned for more rolling tranches rather than a single dramatic event.

“This release follows the direction of President Donald J. Trump to begin the process of identifying and declassifying government files related to UAP in the interest of total transparency,” read an excerpt in the Friday announcement.

A separate $16 million market asking whether the administration would declassify UFO files in 2025 resolved “Yes” earlier this year.

No formal presidential declassification took place at the time. Late-session bids near 99 cents and a contested UMA oracle vote pushed the outcome through.

Comment threads on the platform labeled the call a scam. Critics dubbed the dispute mechanism “proof-of-whales,” reigniting questions about token-weighted oracles overriding trader consensus.

What Rolling Releases Mean for the Markets

The Department of War welcomes private-sector analysis of the unresolved cases. Each new tranche could move disclosure odds and revive the dispute around how oracles call ambiguous outcomes.

If headline catalysts keep arriving, the prediction-market lens may become the cleanest gauge of how seriously markets price disclosure narratives.

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