Persian Gulf crude exports rebound to 75% of prewar levels as US-Iran deal takes hold

Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again. After months of near-total shutdown triggered by the 2026 Iran war, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have clawed back to roughly three-quarters of their prewar volume.

The catalyst: a preliminary peace agreement signed in mid-June 2026 between President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. That memorandum cracked open the world’s most important oil chokepoint, which had been sealed shut since March 4, 2026, when escalating military strikes forced a full closure.

The numbers behind the recovery

As of June 12, 2026, flows through the strait had reached an estimated 5.1 million barrels per day. That’s a dramatic jump from the 2.9 million barrels per day recorded in May 2026, when tanker traffic was still operating under severe security constraints. That 5.1 million figure still represents only about 25% of prewar throughput according to analyst estimates.

Brent crude, which had surged past $120 per barrel during the peak of the conflict, has since pulled back. Crude futures have declined by roughly 10% as markets price in the diplomatic thaw. On the consumer side, US gas prices have dipped below $4 per gallon.

Why full recovery is still a long way off

The International Energy Agency projects a global oil supply reduction of 4 million barrels per day for 2026 as a whole, driven by the cumulative impact of Gulf disruptions across the first half of the year. A meaningful rebound in global supply isn’t anticipated until 2027.

The agreement between Washington and Tehran is a memorandum, not a comprehensive treaty. The strikes in late February 2026 that triggered the strait’s closure happened fast. Damaged port infrastructure and disrupted supply chains across the Gulf region also cannot be repaired immediately, with refineries that went offline requiring weeks or months to restart safely.

What this means for investors

A 10% pullback in futures prices is significant, but Brent is still trading well above the $70-$80 range that characterized the period before the conflict began.

One notable absence in this entire saga: crypto. Despite the massive geopolitical upheaval and energy market volatility, digital assets haven’t played a meaningful role as either a hedge or a beneficiary. Traditional energy markets and conventional financial instruments remain firmly in the driver’s seat.

The IEA’s 2027 timeline for full recovery suggests the market expects a long grind back to normalcy.

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