Polymarket Bets: no national reserve of Bitcoin in the United States until April 2025

2 months ago 28

After the recent inauguration of Donald Trump, the crypto community is betting on Polymarket on the approval of Bitcoin as a national reserve in the United States.

This hypothesis, already discussed several times by Trump himself during the election campaign, is increasingly fueled by the US media, which talk about its imminent implementation.

However, according to Polymarket investors, it is unlikely that a law will be approved in the USA allowing Bitcoin to be used as a Treasury asset, at least until April 2025. By the end of the year, however, the prospects change significantly.

Let’s see everything in detail below.

Polymarket: it is unlikely that Donald Trump will approve a Bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days

Nowadays in the crypto world, there is nothing but talk about Donald Trump and the possibility that the United States might start adopting a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.

During his electoral campaign, Trump had sworn that he would establish a cryptocurrency reserve at the Treasury, in order to combat the country’s high public debt.

Now, considering that the new President has kept most of his commitments, it is expected that this promise could also become a reality.

The USA media contribute to increasing this hope, recurrently addressing the topic of Bitcoin and its potential implications as a shield for the US economy.

Even the members of the Trump administration, like the cryptographic expert David Sacks, have confirmed the idea of a possible national reserve denominated in Bitcoin.

The latter even talked about it a few days ago in an interview on Fox News, creating hype among the bitcoiners’ audience.

Despite the air of confidence surrounding this potential event, Polymarket bets show a completely different situation from the one perceived.

For the moment there is only a 16% chance that Donald Trump will order the creation of a strategic bitcoin (BTC) reserve within the first 100 days of his administration.

This means that it is unlikely that a law will be signed allowing the US Treasury to hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet and begin an accumulation phase by April 29.

Very curious to note how until January 19, the day before Trump’s entry into the White House, the odds of Polymarket were at 48%.

From January 20 onwards, it seems that investors have changed their minds, with the chances of success of the event plummeting.

Likely these dynamics are due to the fact that Trump did not mention either “crypto” or “Bitcoin” during his inauguration speech as President.

Polymarket indicates a higher probability of success at the end of the year

Broadening the horizons, we can notice how the estimates of Polymarket for the creation of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin in the USA change drastically.

In fact, in the first 100 days of the administration (by April 29), it seems unlikely that Trump can give the green light to such an event, but by the end-of-year deadline, the odds increase significantly.

More specifically, the bettors of Polymarket give a 53% chance that a similar bill will be approved in the USA by 2025.

It therefore seems that the idea of a reserve in Bitcoin can likely be formally embraced between May and December, and not before.

Here, as in the previous bet, the odds were higher just before Trump’s inauguration, but then they dropped by a few points.

On the contrary, however, in this case the chances of success are much higher compared to those at the beginning of the year, when the possibility of a reserve in Bitcoin was assessed at 42%.

It is also interesting to note how on January 23rd bets skyrocketed to 73%, following the executive order signed by the President promoting the advancement of the crypto sector in the country.

In particular, Trump would have established the body “Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets,” with the goal of consolidating the position of the United States as a global leader in cryptocurrencies.

This political move, however, only temporarily raised the quotes on Polymarket, as there was no specific mention of Bitcoin.

Indicatively, the following chart tends to rise whenever Trump talks about Bitcoin or refers to the idea of a national reserve in crypto.

We will see in the coming months how the situation will evolve in relation to the President’s attitude towards this topic.

polymarket scommesse riserva nazionale bitcoin us

What would the introduction of a US Bitcoin reserve entail?

The introduction of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin could have very positive effects, not only for the economy of the United States, but also for the entire crypto world.

Everything will depend primarily on which specific bill will be approved, should the idea pass the scrutiny of the Chamber.

The most interesting proposal is certainly the one proposed by the Republican senator from Wyoming Cynthia Lummis, known for her favorable position on Bitcoin.

In particular, Lummis would have proposed the creation of a strategic reserve, with the commitment to establish a “Bitcoin Purchase Program of 200,000 BTC per year for five years.

This means that the United States, partially financed by the revaluation of gold, should purchase a total of 1 million BTC, equivalent to over 105 billion dollars.

This proposal, currently under review by the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, could potentially drastically reduce the U.S. public debt, should Bitcoin continue its eternal bull run.

Michal Saylor of Microstrategy is widely in favor of this idea, so much so that he believes it could save the American dollar from devaluation. These are his words on the matter:

“The best way to protect the dollar is to ensure you pay off debt and become rich.”

There are also other proposals similar to those of Lummis that consider a national reserve of Bitcoin, but without a predetermined purchase program.

In Pennsylvania, for example, the representative Mike Cabell has requested to allocate up to 10% of state funds in Bitcoin to combat inflation.

In Arizona, the “Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 24 Act” bill is being discussed, already approved by the Senate Finance Committee, which echoes the features of Pennsylvania.

In Texas, on the other hand, the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act” is being considered, which aims to create a special reserve outside the state’s general budget. This would allow Texas to manage Bitcoin as a strategic financial asset.

At the moment, Polymarket estimates that the law on Bitcoin as a reserve could be approved by 2025 with a 55% probability.