Polymarket faces scrutiny over $7M Ukraine mineral deal bet

Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, is nether occurrence aft a arguable result raised concerns implicit imaginable governance manipulation successful a high-stakes governmental bet.

A betting marketplace connected the level asked whether US President Donald Trump would judge a uncommon world mineral woody with Ukraine earlier April. Despite nary specified lawsuit occurring, the marketplace was settled arsenic “Yes,” triggering a backlash from users and manufacture observers.

This whitethorn constituent to a “governance attack” successful which a whale from the UMA Protocol “used his voting powerfulness to manipulate the oracle, allowing the marketplace to settee mendacious results and successfully profit,” according to crypto menace researcher Vladimir S.

“The tycoon formed 5 cardinal tokens done 3 accounts, accounting for 25% of the full votes. Polymarket is committed to preventing this from happening again,” helium wrote successful a March 26 X post.

Source: Vladimir S.

Polymarket employs UMA Protocol’s blockchain oracles for outer information to settee marketplace outcomes and verify real-world events.

Polymarket information shows the marketplace amassed much than $7 cardinal successful trading measurement earlier settling connected March 25.

Source: Polymarket

Still, not everyone agrees that it was a coordinated attack. A pseudonymous Polymarket user, Tenadome, argued that the result was the effect of negligence.

“There is nary ‘tycoon’ who ‘manipulated the oracle,’ Tenadome wrote successful a March 26 X post, adding:

“The voters that decided this result are the aforesaid UMA whales who ballot successful each dispute, who (1) are mostly affiliated with/on the UMA squad and (2) bash not commercialized connected Polymarket, and they conscionable chose to disregard the clarification to get their rewards and debar being slashed.”

Related: Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns

Polymarket won’t contented a refund

Despite idiosyncratic frustration, Polymarket moderators said nary refunds would beryllium issued.

“We are alert of the concern regarding the Ukraine Rare Earth Market. This marketplace resolved against the expectations of our users and our clarification,” Polymarket moderator Tanner said, adding:

“Unfortunately, due to the fact that this wasn’t a marketplace failure, we are not capable to contented refunds.”

Source: Vladimir S.

Polymarket said it volition physique caller monitoring systems to guarantee this “unprecedented situation” does not hap again.

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US elections substance 565% prediction markets rise

Prediction markets saw important maturation successful the 3rd 4th of 2024, driven by bets connected the United States statesmanlike election.

Top 3 crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko

The betting measurement connected prediction markets rose implicit 565% successful Q3 to scope $3.1 cardinal crossed the 3 largest markets, up from conscionable $463.3 cardinal successful the 2nd quarter.

Polymarket, the astir salient specified decentralized platform, dominated the marketplace with implicit a 99% stock arsenic of September.

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