Polymarket shows Netanyahu’s re-election chances drop 2% behind Eizenkot as Iran deal reshapes Israeli politics

Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, is no longer the favorite to hold onto his job. At least not according to the bettors putting real money on the outcome.

Polymarket’s prediction market for Israel’s next prime minister now places former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot at roughly 34%, edging past Netanyahu’s 32%. The 2-percentage-point gap might sound razor thin, but for a politician who has dominated Israeli politics for the better part of two decades, trailing anyone on a prediction market is notable.

The Iran deal factor

The catalyst behind Netanyahu’s slippage appears to be a tentative US-Iran deal framework, announced between June 12 and 15, that aims to ease tensions between Washington and Tehran. For most world leaders, a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East would be welcome news. For Netanyahu, whose political brand has been built substantially on hawkish Iran policy, it’s the opposite.

Israeli polls from early June 2026 already indicated that an anti-Netanyahu bloc could secure a Knesset majority. The Iran deal appears to be accelerating that trend, giving voters less reason to rally behind a security-first incumbent when the security picture looks, at least temporarily, less dire.

How Netanyahu’s coalition fell apart

The prediction market shift didn’t happen in a vacuum. Netanyahu’s governing coalition collapsed over disputes regarding Haredi military exemptions, a perennial flashpoint in Israeli politics. Ultra-Orthodox parties exited the coalition, triggering the requirement for new elections to be held by October 27, 2026.

Eizenkot, the former military chief who led the IDF from 2015 to 2019, has emerged as the consensus candidate for the anti-Netanyahu camp. Israeli polling suggests he’s viewed as the most suitable candidate for prime minister among those aligned against the current government.

The broader prediction market picture

Polymarket has recorded over $16.8 million in trading volume on the Israeli prime minister market. The field isn’t just a two-horse race, either. Naftali Bennett, who briefly served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, currently sits at 22% on Polymarket. Avigdor Lieberman, the veteran politician and former defense minister, trails at 4%.

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