Polymarket Tightens User Checks As Donald Trump Election Bets Surge

Polymarket, a crypto-based predictions market, is conducting new checks to verify that its high-stakes users are not based in the US, where the platform is restricted. 

The move comes as Polymarket experiences a surge in wagers backing Donald Trump to win the upcoming US presidential election. Over 64% of the predictions on Polymarket are betting on Trump to win in November. 

Four Accounts on Polymarket Collectively Bet $43 Million on Trump

According to Bloomberg reports, the platform is reviewing the activity of users, particularly those placing large bets. This includes confirming the location of users to avoid potential regulatory breaches.

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Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris Current Betting Odds. Source: Polymarket

Recent scrutiny has intensified following a surge in political betting, with a few accounts betting millions of dollars in favor of Trump. Polymarket’s leaderboard shows that one user, known as Fredi9999, has wagered more than $18 million on Republican outcomes.

A recent viral post from X account Fozzy suggests that Fredi9999 and three other accounts, collectively responsible for over $43 million in bets on Republican outcomes, may be linked. None of these accounts are reportedly based in the US.

“The betting pattern of each account is very similar, and when one account stops, another picks up. There is very little overlap within each account, suggesting they are all the same entity,” Fozzy said.

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As interest in the US election grew throughout the summer, activity on Polymarket surged. Although the platform blocks US users, some have reportedly bypassed restrictions using VPN.

In early 2022, Polymarket settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) after facing allegations of offering illegal trading services. As part of the agreement, the platform agreed to stop serving US users but to continue operations in other regions.

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