Polymarket users see less than 50% chance for CLARITY Act passage by 2026

The crypto industry’s best shot at comprehensive regulatory clarity is looking increasingly shaky. Polymarket bettors currently peg the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 somewhere between 24% and 48%, a steep fall from projections that once topped 70%.

What the CLARITY Act actually does

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, formally designated H.R. 3633, tries to solve a problem the crypto industry has complained about for years. Who’s in charge?

The bill draws a clear line between what the SEC regulates and what falls under the CFTC. Investment-contract assets go to the SEC. Digital commodities go to the CFTC.

The House passed the bill with bipartisan support back in July 2025. That alone was a milestone, given that crypto legislation has historically struggled to make it out of committee, let alone through a full chamber vote.

Trump’s dinner-and-a-deal approach

Former President Trump scheduled a White House meeting with key Republican senators around July 16, 2026, specifically to push the CLARITY Act forward.

A significant portion of the conversation reportedly centered on ethics concerns tied to Trump’s own cryptocurrency investments. Those concerns have become a drag on the bill’s momentum, giving Democratic opponents easy ammunition and making some Republican senators skittish about appearing too closely aligned with the effort.

Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital has revised his own internal estimates for the bill’s passage down to roughly 50%, citing calendar constraints as a primary factor.

The calendar problem

The Senate faces an August 7, 2026, deadline before summer recess. That gives lawmakers roughly three weeks from Trump’s mid-July lobbying push to debate, amend, and vote on a complex piece of financial regulation.

If the CLARITY Act doesn’t get a vote before August recess, the timeline extends into the fall, where other legislative priorities could push crypto regulation further down the queue. Prediction market bettors appear to be pricing in exactly this scenario.

What this means for investors

Without regulatory clarity, large allocators remain on the sidelines or limit their exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two assets with the clearest existing regulatory frameworks.

The ambiguity surrounding which tokens are securities and which are commodities persists. That ambiguity makes US-based exchanges cautious about listing new assets, keeps traditional financial institutions from fully integrating crypto products, and gives enforcement agencies, particularly the SEC, room to continue its regulation-by-enforcement approach.

One thing worth watching: if the bill does die before August recess, the question becomes whether leadership attempts to attach key provisions to a must-pass spending bill later in the year. It would likely mean a watered-down version of the original legislation, trading comprehensive clarity for incremental progress.

A surprise passage would likely trigger a meaningful rally across altcoins that have been depressed by regulatory uncertainty. Continued stalling, on the other hand, is largely priced in already.

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