Price of Dogecoin: negative forecast with AI

The company specialized in machine-learning algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI) CoinCodex has published a bear forecast regarding the price of Dogecoin. 

It is necessary, however, to distinguish the short-term forecast from the long-term ones, which should be less reliable.

AI: the short-term forecast on the price of Dogecoin

The algorithms of CoinCodex based on artificial intelligence predict that in the coming days the price of Dogecoin may decrease, although not by much.

Given a current price above $0.13, they calculate that DOGE could drop by 1.3% by the end of the month, falling back below this threshold. 

However, this is a somewhat simplistic forecast, as it actually assumes that from now until July 31, or for the next seven days, the price of Dogecoin should always go down except the day after tomorrow. Furthermore, it assumes that tomorrow it may remain unchanged. 

Taking into consideration instead the last seven actual trading days, it is noted that there has not been a constant movement at all. 

In fact, between July 17 and 18, it dropped below $0.12, while in the following two days it rose again. Then it stopped for a day and on the 22nd it rose again. Yesterday, however, it dropped.

Hypothesizing five consecutive days of decline, after a day of lateralization, seems even a bit too daring, for a memecoin with such a volatile value.

Even the daily variations hypothesized by the AI, never exceeding 1.5% in the next seven days, sound a bit strange. Just think that last Saturday it recorded a +7% in a single day, followed by a +4% the next day.

Underestimated forecast?

It seems that the intelligenza artificiale with which this CoinCodex forecast was developed is not able to understand the inherently very volatile nature of the price of memecoins like DOGE.

It is possible that you underestimate the amplitude of daily fluctuations, perhaps because you take as a reference other much less volatile assets, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum or even the stock titles of the largest companies in the world.

The last period of decline in the price of Dogecoin occurred between June 3 and 5, when it lost 11% in one day. Usually, the prices of memecoins move like this, and not with, for example, several consecutive daily declines of 1%.

Perhaps, in light of all this, the forecast by CoinCodex can be considered underestimated, particularly with regard to volatility. 

The long-term forecast of AI on the price of Dogecoin

CoinCodex has also published a long-term forecast on the price of Dogecoin. 

It should be noted, however, that long-term forecasts calculated using artificial intelligence, which is not capable, for example, of predicting major unpredictable events, are not very reliable. 

According to this forecast, next year the maximum price reached by Dogecoin could be $0.56, which is more than double the peak reached this year, and not much below the all-time high of three years ago. However, it also predicts, again for next year, a minimum just above $0.11, which is a value perfectly in line with that of a couple of weeks ago. 

It should be noted that it predicts a minimum of $0.11 even for 2026, with a maximum dropped to $0.21. Therefore, it actually predicts a significant, but not enormous, bull run next year, followed by a bear-market in 2026. 

The same forecast, however, also ventures that between 2028 and 2029 there should be another great bullrun, thanks to which the price of Dogecoin could rise up to $1.45, which is about double the current all-time high of 2021, but only to then fall back to $0.12 in 2030. 

On the other hand, the next Bitcoin halving will indeed take place in 2028, and in 2029 there could actually be another big bull run. 

Reliable forecasts?

For the reasons outlined above, the short-term forecast does not give the impression of being very reliable. 

Not so much for the indicated figures, which instead are perfectly in line with the current ones, but for the excessively reduced volatility. 

Suffice it to say that from July 2 to 5 the price of Dogecoin dropped from $0.125 to $0.091, while from the 12th to the 16th it rose from $0.107 to $0.128. 

Imagining that in the coming days it could limit itself to dropping to $0.128, starting from the current $0.134 seems to really underestimate the volatility of this asset.

Instead, paradoxically, the long-term forecast seems more in line with the classic behavior of the crypto markets. Even in this case, it is not so much the figures that are indicative, but the trend. 

Imagining a bullrun in 2025, followed by a bear-market in 2026, and then a new bullrun in 2029, followed by another bear-market in 2030, is perfectly in line with what has happened in past cycles. 

Artificial intelligence

In reality, as of today, artificial intelligence does not yet seem capable of truly assisting traders by predicting future price movements, because it is not able to foresee events. 

However, it can be useful to identify historical trends that could repeat in the future. 

On the other hand, this is a technology still in its early stages, and in the future, it could also prove to be much more useful than it seems now.