Radev’s coalition poised for landslide in Bulgaria election exit polls

Bulgaria’s parliamentary election exit polls show Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition heading toward a landslide victory. The odds of Radev becoming the next Prime Minister are at 95.9% YES in the next Prime Minister of Bulgaria market, up from 76% a week ago.

Market reaction

The 15.5-point increase over the past week tracks growing confidence in his coalition’s ability to secure a parliamentary majority. Daily volume is at $24,076 in USDC. A notable 4-point drop occurred at 3:21 PM, when odds briefly slipped from 95% to 91%. All activity is concentrated in the 2026 sub-market. The $3,810 required to shift odds by 5 points points to a relatively thick order book, which dampens the effect of small trades but leaves room for larger moves.

Why it matters

Radev’s potential leadership raises questions about Bulgaria’s future alignment with EU and NATO policies, given his pro-Russian stance. At 95.9¢, a YES share pays out $1, a 1.09x return. Traders see little risk in Radev failing to secure the role. The consistent 91.5% odds price this as near-certain.

What to watch

Coalition formation announcements and any disruptions from opposition parties are the main variables. President Iliana Iotova’s role in formally nominating the Prime Minister is the next procedural step. If Radev confirms a coalition quickly, expect the market to push closer to 100%.

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