Raoul Pal Says Bitcoin Could Halve And Still Remain Bullish

• Macro investor Raoul Pal says a fall from $126,000 to $60,000 would be a correction, not necessarily a bear market.
• Pal points to Bitcoin’s long history of 30% to 50% pullbacks during major bull cycles.
• He also highlighted Solana’s 80% decline in 2021 before it eventually recovered and reached new highs.

Bitcoin has a unique ability to test investor conviction. One month it is breaking records and generating headlines about institutional adoption, and the next it is convincing many traders that the entire market is about to collapse. According to Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, that emotional rollercoaster is exactly why so many investors struggle to navigate crypto cycles.

Responding to concerns about potential future declines, Pal argued that even a drop from $126,000 to $60,000 would not automatically signal the end of Bitcoin’s bull market. While such a move would undoubtedly be painful, he believes it could still fall within the range of a normal correction inside a broader long-term uptrend.

Bitcoin Has Always Been Volatile

Pal’s argument is based largely on Bitcoin’s historical behavior. Since its earliest days, the asset has experienced numerous drawdowns of 30%, 40%, and even 50% while remaining firmly within larger bullish trends.

For newer investors, those declines often feel catastrophic. A 50% correction in traditional markets would likely trigger widespread panic and dominate financial headlines for months. In crypto, however, those kinds of pullbacks have occurred repeatedly throughout multiple market cycles.

The reason is simple. Bitcoin tends to move faster and more aggressively than most other assets. The same volatility that fuels explosive rallies also creates brutal corrections along the way.

Solana Provides Another Example

To support his view, Pal pointed to Solana’s performance during the 2021 bull market. Despite operating in one of the strongest crypto environments in history, Solana experienced an 80% drawdown before eventually recovering and continuing its climb to new highs.

That example illustrates an important distinction. A large correction does not necessarily mean a market structure has broken down. Sometimes it simply reflects excessive leverage being flushed from the system, profit-taking by early investors, or temporary shifts in sentiment.

The lesson is not that every asset recovers from major declines. Rather, it is that large drawdowns can occur even while the broader trend remains intact.

Volatility Is Often the Price of Opportunity

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that bull markets move in a straight line. History suggests the opposite is usually true. Strong uptrends are often interrupted by periods of fear, uncertainty, and sharp selloffs that force weaker hands out of the market.

Bitcoin has repeatedly demonstrated this pattern. Major corrections frequently occur during bull cycles, only for the asset to recover and eventually reach higher levels. While those periods are uncomfortable, they have become a recurring feature of crypto market behavior rather than an exception.

That reality makes risk management and patience especially important. Investors who cannot tolerate volatility often struggle to hold through the very corrections that later appear insignificant on long-term charts.

Conviction Often Gets Tested Before Rewards Arrive

Pal’s comments serve as a reminder that price alone does not determine whether a cycle has ended. Market structure, liquidity conditions, adoption trends, and investor behavior all play important roles in shaping long-term outcomes.

A drop from $126,000 to $60,000 would undoubtedly trigger fear across the crypto market. Headlines would likely declare the bull run over, and many investors would rush to the exits. Yet history suggests those moments of maximum discomfort have often appeared before significant recoveries.

Nobody enjoys watching their portfolio decline by 50%. But if Bitcoin continues following patterns established over previous cycles, volatility may simply be part of the journey. Crypto has a long history of shaking out weak conviction before rewarding patient participants, and Raoul Pal believes that pattern may be far from over.

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