Renaissance Capital’s Matt Kennedy says there’s no IPO mania, just three massive deals hogging all the attention

The IPO market looks red hot if you squint at the right three companies. Look anywhere else, and it’s a different story entirely.

Matt Kennedy, Senior IPO Market Strategist at Renaissance Capital, has been making the case that what we’re witnessing isn’t broad-based IPO enthusiasm. It’s hyper-concentrated demand funneled into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, three companies that together could raise more capital than the rest of the IPO market combined.

Three deals, all the oxygen

US IPO proceeds hit $28.4 billion year-to-date as of mid-May 2026, according to Renaissance Capital. That sounds healthy enough. Then you consider what’s coming next.

SpaceX is set to list on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with an expected raise north of $50 billion. The valuation range sits between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. For context, Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO raised $29 billion, which held the record for nearly seven years. SpaceX alone could nearly double that number.

Anthropic filed its IPO paperwork around June 1, 2026, joining a queue that already includes OpenAI’s highly anticipated public offering. Each of these three mega-IPOs is expected to individually raise at least double, if not triple, the Aramco record.

Kennedy warned back in April 2026 that SpaceX’s listing could “suck up the oxygen” from the broader market, potentially slowing down other companies’ plans to go public.

The crowding-out problem

When Facebook went public in 2012, it had a measurable dampening effect on the broader IPO pipeline. Companies that might have listed in the same quarter delayed their offerings or scaled back their ambitions. The gravitational pull of a single mega-deal distorted the entire landscape.

If SpaceX’s offering alone could match the cumulative US IPO proceeds from the first five months of the year, the collective weight of all three deals landing within weeks of each other creates a scenario where smaller companies might as well not bother trying.

Kennedy’s data paints a picture where the headline IPO numbers will look spectacular by year-end. But strip out the top three deals and the underlying market could be anemic.

What this means for investors

For crypto markets specifically, the dynamic is worth watching closely. These mega-IPOs will absorb enormous amounts of institutional liquidity over the coming weeks. The absence of any crypto-related offerings in the current IPO pipeline underscores an already widening gap between where traditional finance is deploying capital and where digital asset markets sit in the institutional pecking order.

Investors should watch how the post-SpaceX pipeline develops. If companies that had been waiting in the wings continue to delay their offerings through the summer, it would confirm the crowding-out thesis. And if the combined proceeds from these three deals dwarf everything else raised this year, the 2026 IPO market will be remembered not for its breadth but for its remarkable, almost absurd, narrowness.

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