1 hour ago
16
Prediction markets have had a breakout couple of years, but Rothera might be the most interesting new entrant yet. The CFTC-regulated exchange, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, has crossed $3 billion in total wagers since launch, with the 2026 FIFA World Cup serving as its primary rocket fuel.
Robinhood began routing World Cup event contracts to Rothera on June 4, 2026. The platform pulled in roughly $2 billion in notional trading volume during June alone, capturing approximately 7% of the U.S. prediction market share in its first full month of operation. For context, that is a meaningful slice of a market that logged $44.8 billion in combined June volumes across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Rothera combined.
June 12, 2026 stood out as a particularly electric day. Daily turnover across prediction platforms hit $4.8 billion, a figure that reflects just how much appetite there is for event-driven trading when a marquee tournament is in full swing.
Bernstein projects the 2026 World Cup alone will generate somewhere between $3 billion and $10 billion in total prediction market volume.
Why Robinhood built this instead of borrowing it
Robinhood previously routed prediction market flow through Kalshi. Rothera is structured as both a Designated Contract Market and a Designated Clearing Organization under CFTC oversight. Most venues either execute trades or clear them. Rothera does both, which is the vertical integration play that gives Robinhood fuller control over the revenue stack.
Bernstein estimates Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will reach $586 million in 2026, up from $150 million in 2025.
What traders and investors should be watching
Rothera currently lists crypto-related event contracts as “coming soon.” The platform’s existing volume is built entirely on traditional event contracts. Adding crypto-native contracts would open Rothera to a different and highly active trading demographic.
Rothera operates under CFTC oversight, which means it is playing by established rules rather than navigating gray zones. Firms that could not touch Polymarket due to compliance constraints have a cleaner on-ramp through a CFTC-licensed venue.
For investors watching Robinhood as a stock, prediction market revenue growing from $150 million to a projected $586 million in a single year represents a meaningful contribution to the overall revenue mix, and owning the infrastructure rather than sharing it with a partner makes the margin profile considerably more attractive as volumes continue to compound.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
English (US) ·